Labour humiliation as Plaid Cymru wins Caerphilly by-election

Labour has lost its 100-year hold on a key heartland in a historic shift in Welsh politics.

In a disastrous result for Sir Keir Starmer, the party was beaten at a pivotal Senedd by-election by Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru.

It is the first time Labour has lost a parliamentary vote in the former mining town of Caerphilly in more than a century, signalling a collapse in support that will fray nerves in Downing Street.

It will also be seen as a disappointing result for Reform UK, who were polling slightly ahead and would have hailed a victory as a sign they were on track to unseat Labour at the Welsh elections next year.

Nigel Farage, the Reform leader, did not appear at the count, despite joining the campaign trail on the day.

The party is expected to blame tactical voting for the defeat. However, it will doubtless be buoyed by a clear surge in support having increased its vote share from 2 per cent to 36 per cent in just four years.

Plaid Cymru won with 15,961 votes, up from the 8,211 it received in 2021. Reform came second with 12,113 votes.

By contrast, the Labour vote collapsed from 35 per cent to 11 per cent, from 13,289 to 3,713.

The party had been expected to do poorly and sought to manage expectations long before the result was announced, saying it had been a “tough campaign”.

The result means Plaid now has 13 seats in the Welsh parliament, just one less than the Tories.

‘The person who should be embarrassed is Starmer’

Llŷr Powell, Reform’s candidate, opted not to give a speech from the podium after the result was announced.

Speaking to reporters, he hit back at the suggestion he should be “embarrassed” for failing to secure a win for Mr Farage.

“I think the person who should be embarrassed is Keir Starmer, who failed to turn up here because he doesn’t care about the constituency of Caerphilly, he doesn’t care about the people of Wales,” he said.

Asked if he thought Welsh Labour was “dead”, he said: “They deserve to be. My goal is for a Reform government, I don’t care what they do. Right now I’m focused on a Reform government here in Wales and we’re going to move forward every day on that.”

There were huge cheers from the Plaid Cymru crowd as their candidate, Lindsay Whittle, finally secured the Caerphilly seat on his 14th time of asking.

In his victory speech, he said he hoped it would be an “exciting time for politics in Wales”, hailing the “dawn of new leadership”.

Baroness Morgan, the Welsh Labour leader, said: “This was a by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally. I want to thank our candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe - a good man who stood because of his desire to serve his community.

“I congratulate Lindsay Whittle on his victory tonight. He returns to the Senedd, continuing his many decades of elected service to people in Caerphilly.

“Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough. We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be [coming] back stronger.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said: “Tonight, the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear.

“They’ve chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision.

“Lindsay Whittle is a tireless local champion who knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly.”

Labour loses Senedd majority

Meanwhile, Labour’s grip on devolved power is slipping. The by-election loss means it has officially dropped to 29 seats in the 60-seat Senedd, forcing the party to turn to other members to prop up its working majority.

It will further complicate the Welsh Government’s attempts to get its budget through Parliament, a high-stakes process that could lead to painful cuts if an agreement isn’t reached.

Labour has won every set of devolved elections in Wales for 26 years and currently holds the most seats in the Senedd, followed by the Tories and Plaid Cymru.

However, opinion polls have suggested that Reform is surging in the country while support for Labour is collapsing.

A YouGov survey last month put Mr Farage’s party out in front on 29 per cent of the Westminster vote, up from 24 per cent in April, followed by Plaid Cymru on 23 per cent and Labour on 18 per cent.

Reform and Plaid were virtually neck-and-neck when it came to support in the Senedd, with both on around 30 per cent, while Labour trailed behind on 14 per cent.

Only a quarter of those who voted for Labour at last year’s general election said they would back the party at the next Senedd vote in May, suggesting the party could be in for a much bigger upset next year.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]