Inside Starmer’s battle to convince White House that his Chagos deal isn’t stupid

Eleven months ago, sitting in the Oval Office, Sir Keir Starmer could scarcely believe his luck.

Beside him, Donald Trump had been asked by a reporter about the UK’s Chagos Islands deal, which involved Britain giving away one of its precious overseas territories to Mauritius.

Commentators had suggested that Mr Trump – who is famously hawkish on China – would block the deal because of concerns it would bring Diego Garcia, a joint British-American military base there, closer to Beijing.

But Mr Trump shocked the travelling pack of British reporters by coming out in favour of the deal.

“We’re going to have some discussions about that very soon, and I have a feeling it’s going to work out very well,” he said. “We have to be given the details, but it doesn’t sound bad.”

Almost a year on, the consensus between the two men over the deal is in serious jeopardy.

British officials have been locked in talks with Mr Trump’s administration at all levels, after he posted on Truth Social last week that he was now “against” the “stupid” deal.

Panic has ensued in the Foreign Office, where mandarins believe the collapse of the agreement will leave Britain exposed to a claim by Mauritius in the international courts. That, in turn, could force the handover of the islands and collapse the military base entirely.

“All of the things we have been warning about are now at risk of happening if Trump changes his mind,” said one insider.

Convincing Mr Trump

Under the terms of the deal negotiated by the Labour Government, the UK will give away the islands and around £35bn in cash terms over 99 years to leaseback Diego Garcia from Mauritius.

On Wednesday, speaking to reporters on his way to China, Sir Keir said the talks had continued “at the tail end of last week, over the weekend and into the early part of this week”.

Revealingly, he added that the Trump administration supported the deal “at agency level,” reflecting a hope in Whitehall that the American “securocrat” establishment will convince Mr Trump to change his mind.

The Telegraph understands that Jonathan Powell, Sir Keir’s national security adviser, has been personally involved in trying to convince the White House to restore its support for the deal.

Mr Powell, who is described by insiders as a sophisticated foreign policy operator, was responsible for negotiating the Chagos deal in 2024.

He has been joined by officials from Downing Street, the Foreign Office and the British Embassy in Washington in classified discussions about the islands and the top-secret work that takes place there.

It is understood that British officials have joined forces with staff at the CIA and National Security Agency (NSA) to convince the more hawkish members of Mr Trump’s team that the Chagos deal is in their interests.

Well-placed sources said two rival camps had emerged during the talks. On one side are Labour ministers, officials and the transatlantic security establishment, while on the other are a collection of Mr Trump’s Maga loyalists.

“There are people around [Mr Trump] who are very hawkish on China, and it’s a bit of a battle for his ear,” said a source.

The talks are the latest in a series of frantic negotiations between Britain and America over the islands.

Chagos deal

With a land area of just 23 miles, the territory looks insignificant on a map but represents a major foothold in the Indian Ocean for Britain and America.

America’s spy agencies, who are thought to use Diego Garcia for signals intelligence, have long been in favour of a deal that will allow it to operate legally.

Joe Biden’s officials pushed Sir Keir’s Government to sign a deal with Mauritius after Labour won office in 2024.

The islands were the first item on the agenda in David Lammy’s initial meeting with the Biden State Department.

Buoyed by support from the Americans, Mr Lammy and his team raced to secure a deal with Mauritius before the presidential election, worrying that Mr Trump could upend their joint plans.

But an election in Mauritius derailed that plan and, after Mr Trump won the White House, British officials led by Mr Powell launched a three-month diplomatic push to convince the new president the deal was worthwhile.

That effort – hailed as a great victory in London – culminated in Sir Keir’s Oval Office moment in February 2025.

Back in London, campaigners against the Chagos deal – including the Conservatives, Reform UK and a group of Chagossian exiles – were furious.

They had spent the last year trying to scupper the deal in any way possible, including in Parliament and the courts.

In the end, their greatest asset was Nigel Farage, the Reform leader, who held talks about the Chagos Islands in Davos earlier this month.

At a meal early last week with Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, Mr Farage chewed over the details of Sir Keir’s plan.

He also held private meetings with Warren Stephens, the US ambassador in London, in an attempt to convince him to come out against the deal, The Telegraph understands.

And Mr Farage raised the Chagos issue with Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, on his GB News show, last Monday evening.

After discussing the issue with Mr Farage, Mr Johnson is understood to have held a phone call with his boss, Mr Trump.

It raises the possibility that Mr Johnson was the last person to speak to the president about the Chagos Islands before his Truth Social post dropped.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Mr Trump posted: “The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired.”

Officials in London scrambled to understand whether that view was a sincere reflection of US policy, or just a late-night social media post from the famously mercurial president.

By ironic coincidence, the day of Mr Trump’s post was also the day that Mr Johnson was visiting Parliament to showcase transatlantic relations.

Mr Johnson – the third most senior Republican in the world – told Kemi Badenoch that he was opposed to the deal, then doubled down by dropping hints about it in his speech to MPs later the same day.

Out of respect for Britain’s sovereignty, he did not mention the Chagos Islands explicitly in his speech, but sources close to him said his vague call for “maintaining strategic strongholds around the world” was a covert reference to the issue.

With a wink and a nod to the Chagos campaigners, he added that both nations had seen “the work of international organisations and transnational bodies hinder the very spirit of creativity and industriousness and daring that our nations were built upon”.

That appeared to be an attack on the International Court of Justice – the legal body that has threatened the security of the islands if the deal is not signed.

Since then, there has been little public discussion of the deal, but talks have continued frantically behind closed doors.

Whitehall sources remain tight-lipped about the outcome of the crisis talks to bring Mr Trump back on board.

Although Downing Street has said the UK remains committed to the deal, there is a private acceptance that without US backing, it will collapse.

“The Americans are key to all of this, and their support for this deal is vital,” said one insider. “Without them, it is hard to see how this gets through.”

A small number of UK spies were therefore rumoured to have been dispatched to Washington to ease the concerns of their American counterparts on Monday.

And trudging through the carpet of snow covering the Capitol was also a delegation of campaigners opposed to the deal and eager to beat them to the president’s ear.

The campaigners had a handful of meetings with senior members of the Trump administration and sitting senators, where they hammered home the national security concerns associated with the deal.

Insiders say the president had been widely distracted by other issues of foreign policy and had not fully appreciated the details of Sir Keir’s deal.

For now, nervous officials await the outcome of talks that could determine the future of the Chagos Islands for good.

The unstoppable force of Mr Trump is on a collision course with the immovable object of the British and American security apparatus. It remains unclear which will prevail.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]