When will Sir Keir Starmer quit? The PM’s four options

Sir Keir Starmer has lost two senior aides in the space of 48 hours, deepening the sense of crisis in Downing Street.

Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff, was forced out on Sunday over the Lord Mandelson scandal, with Labour MPs warning this may not be enough to keep the Prime Minister in No 10.

On Monday morning, Sir Keir’s woes increased when he lost Tim Allan, his communications chief.

Mr Allan is the fourth head of communications that Sir Keir has lost in the 19 months he has been in No 10.

He had been seen as a safe pair of hands as he worked successfully with Sir Tony Blair.

The mood in Westminster is febrile, and an increasing number of ministers and backbenchers believe the question is not whether Sir Keir will resign, but when.

Records show the departure of senior aides leads to a lingering death for even the most successful prime ministers.

Margaret Thatcher lasted barely a year after Alan Walters, her economics adviser, was forced to quit. Gordon Brown did not last long after his communications chief went. Theresa May and Boris Johnson were both forced out less than two years after the departure of their top aides. 

Will Sir Keir choose to stay on despite the loss of two of his key personnel? Or will he decide to go earlier to save his party from further damage? Here we look at the options facing the Prime Minister.

1. This week

Holed up in Downing Street, the Prime Minister is at his lowest ebb.

Friends say he is depressed about having led his party into such a crisis and angry at having let down his colleagues by appointing Lord Mandelson despite all the warnings. It could be that he decides that enough is enough, and for the good of the party, he should go as soon as possible.

Much will depend on how this week plays out – and whether Labour MPs have picked up on a groundswell of opinion among their constituents that he should go.

On Monday evening, he will address the Parliamentary Labour Party. In a make-or-break speech, he will again apologise for giving Lord Mandelson the job of United States ambassador, and lay out further plans to clean up politics.

If his talk goes well, and MPs rally round, it will give him the confidence to continue. If it does not, he may question that.

On Wednesday, he faces his most difficult Prime Minister’s Questions yet. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party leader, has improved at the Dispatch Box in recent months, and if she deals him a serious setback it could be very difficult for Sir Keir.

Much depends on Lord Mandelson himself. Will there be further revelations from the three million Epstein files? Will the former ambassador say anything after police interview him?

In addition, the Cabinet Office may finally publish the due diligence report into Lord Mandelson’s appointment, which will show exactly what Sir Keir was told about his links to Epstein. How will that go down?

In the end, the Prime Minister – who is polling as the most unpopular in history – may want to fall on his sword to try to shore up Labour councillors in May’s local elections.

2. After the by-election

Few now expect Labour to win the crucial Gorton and Denton by-election on Feb 26.

Labour won the Greater Manchester seat with more than half the vote at the last election, but now it faces being pushed into third place behind Reform UK and the Green Party.

Sir Keir may try to dismiss the defeat as the inevitable result of being the party of government having to make difficult choices during a difficult economic period.

But he will be blamed for his decision last month to block Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, from standing as the party’s candidate.

The Prime Minister wanted to keep Mr Burnham out of Parliament because he feared he would use it as a launchpad to a leadership bid.

However, Mr Burnham is seen as the only person who could have won the seat against such a strong challenge from Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party.

In blocking the mayor, Sir Keir left Labour’s chances of winning Gorton and Denton in the hands of Angeliki Stogia, a little-known councillor. When the bad news comes through in the early hours of Feb 27, the Prime Minister may feel he has no choice but to go.

3. After the May elections

This year’s local elections look set to be disastrous for the Prime Minister.

In Wales, Labour is on track to lose control of the Senedd for the first time since its establishment in 1999. In Scotland, the party will probably fall short of wrestling back control of the Scottish Parliament, held by the SNP since 2007.

In England, meanwhile, hundreds of Labour councillors are expected to lose their seats amid a surge in support for Reform.

The headlines will be monumentally bad for Labour, even after the Government tried to soften the blow by allowing dozens of councils to cancel their elections as part of a reform of local government.

If Sir Keir chooses this moment to go, it will prompt the question: will he resign immediately, or will he hang around for weeks to allow a long campaign for his successor?

Examples of prime ministers staying in office after announcing their intention to resign are not good, as it allows opposition parties to seize the initiative.

Mr Johnson said he was quitting on July 7, 2022, leaving his potential successors fighting like rats in a sack for two months before Liz Truss was elected on Sept 5. Sir Keir may decide that a long resignation may not be in the best interests of his party.

4. Not this year

Perhaps, despite all the electoral setbacks, Sir Keir could manage to cling on.

One problem for those on the Left of the party is that there is no ready-made successor.

The PM successfully blocked a return route for Mr Burnham by ordering his allies on Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee to strike his name from the candidates’ list for Gorton and Denton.

Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary and potential leadership candidate of the centre, is tainted by his perceived closeness to Mr McSweeney and Lord Mandelson. He could be damaged if the release of government files shows he was in close contact with the peer.

Angela Rayner, supported by those on the soft Left, may not be able to run as she still has an HMRC investigation into unpaid stamp duty hanging over her.

Sir Keir’s allies – and despite everything he still has many on the Labour backbenches – will argue strongly that chopping and changing yet another prime minister could harm the country economically and the party electorally.

It means the Prime Minister could limp on for months, in office but not in power.

There are precedents for this. Mrs May stayed on as prime minister for more than two years after her joint chiefs of staff, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, quit once she lost her majority in the disastrous 2017 election. But she was wounded and unable to regain her stature.

Mr Johnson stayed in office for one year and 10 months after Dominic Cummings quit. But it left his government appearing directionless and he eventually had to go over the Partygate scandal.

The record suggests that while Sir Keir may be able to stay in Downing Street in the short term, he probably won’t be there at the next election.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]