Oil, gas and the Aberdeen South by-election

The upcoming by-election in Makerfield, through which Andy Burnham wants quite cynically to make his way to Downing Street, is set to be one of the most significant in modern British politics. The decision of the Scottish National Party (SNP)'s former Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, to move to Holyrood signals a shift in the political landscape, with another crucial contest unfolding more than 350 miles further north. If Makerfield is a test of Mayor Burnham and Labour's ability to fend off Reform UK – not to mention the rise of Restore Britain, which is ignored and dismissed outright by the mainstream media – Flynn's old seat of Aberdeen South sits on the frontline of the increasingly tense debate over North Sea oil.

Scottish Labour, which secured second place in the 2024 general election primarily due to strategic anti-Tory voting, is not really even in the race this time. The consequences of Donald Trump's military action in Iran have highlighted Britain's need for fossil fuels, as well more importantly as Labour’s clumsy, dogmatic and frankly ludicrous decimation of oil and gas particularly under Net Zero Zealot Miliband – while importing it from Norway taken from the same fields! The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a significant political opportunity for the Scottish Conservatives and Reform, who perhaps see the by-election as a local referendum on the potential revival of oil and gas production beyond the limits set by Westminster. It is also worth noting that the seat has historically been Tory, and is very clearly a two-horse race between the Conservatives and the SNP.

In a city that once proudly referred to itself as Europe's oil capital, this message is likely to be well received. The SNP has maintained its commitment to the net zero target, however, it has shown flexibility in its position on further drilling in the Middle East, when faced with specific questions on the subject. In an attempt to reframe the discussion within the context of nationalism, the first minister, John Swinney, has called for enhanced Holyrood oversight of energy policy. This represents an update of the 1970s slogan "Scotland's oil" to the current era of so-called renewable energy.

This shift in political sentiment is a cause for concern, given the magnitude of the economic and environmental implications. The opposition of Reform UK to climate action, as evidenced by their "drill, baby, drill" slogan, may be perceived as too extreme by some of the Aberdeen population, who think that the city's future prosperity is contingent on its transition into a clean-energy hub. However, rising energy prices and job losses in the oil and gas sector have created a favourable environment for the Conservative leader, Mrs Badenoch, to secure a potentially significant victory in the Scottish constituency, taking it back from the SNP. The recent admission of Nicola Sturgeon's ex-husband, Peter Murrell, regarding the misappropriation of SNP funds may potentially compound the likelihood of an upset.

With a UK general election approaching, in which the right will attempt to portray net zero as an insurmountable economic challenge, such a result would be a stark warning sign. Regardless of the outcome in Aberdeen on 18 June, the government should consider the renewed debate on North Sea oil and gas if it wants to be taken seriously. According to the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, employment in the UK's oil and gas industry has fallen by 70,000 over the past decade, to 115,000 jobs.

When he announced two years ago that the government's new state-owned company, GB Energy, would be based in Aberdeen, Sir Keir Starmer promised it would help "kickstart a UK-wide clean-energy revolution". The proof is clearly in the pudding, which has not yet materialised; deep anxiety exists that communities will not be protected from the kind of painful decline seen during the deindustrialisation of the 1980s. The absolute irony is that this is taking place under the so-called party of the “working class” (whatever that may be nowadays). In the coming weeks, the media will focus predominantly on Makerfield. However, the by-election in Aberdeen South may prove to be a significant wake-up call for Westminster, especially when Douglas Lumsden wins.