Nigel Farage is gambling on Clacton backing him again, but voters are divided

Two years ago, voters in Clacton handed Nigel Farage a convincing majority. Now, he is asking them to put their faith in him once again in what the Reform leader has billed as a “people versus the establishment” vote.

Under clear blue skies, there is a steady flow of people through the pedestrianised streets of this Essex seaside town. Retirees wander between banks and charity shops, young mothers push prams past betting shops and arcades, workers – often tradespeople – stop at its cafes. Many are anticipating an imminent visit from their MP, just 24 hours after he announced he would be triggering a by-election in the constituency.

On paper, Clacton is the closest thing Reform has to natural heartland territory. It combines culturally conservative voters, strong support for Brexit, an older, predominantly white working-class demographic, pockets of economic deprivation and a sense of deep disillusionment with the political establishment.

But this is no ordinary by-election. In shades of David Davis in 2008, who triggered a by-election in his Haltemprice and Howden seat in protest against the erosion of civil liberties, Farage has announced the snap poll to shoot the fox of “dodgy” donations allegations. Those allegations saw Parliament’s standards commissioner launch a formal investigation into a £5m gift Farage received shortly before he became an MP from billionaire Reform donor Christopher Harborne.

The calculation, presumably, is that a fresh mandate from the people of Clacton will do what tetchy media appearances, denials and rebuttals cannot: demonstrate that those who know their MP best have heard the case against him and chosen him anyway.

However, if Farage hoped for a dramatic battle against establishment candidates he will have been bruised by the main parties unanimously deciding not to contest the vote. Now his most recognisable opponent is likely to be Count Binface, who is renowned for routinely staging eccentric by-election challenges, but could now become a rallying point for opponents of the Reform leader.

In short, this is the biggest gamble of Farage’s career to date. The question is: do Clacton residents share his enthusiasm for the exercise?

Susan, who backed Farage at the last general election, helping deliver the Reform leader a 8,405 majority, still thinks he’s the right man to represent the area – and lead the country too. “They’re [Reform] about the country, not the politics,” Susan says, adding she believes Farage has done a good job as the local MP.

But even she questions the decision to force another contest. “It was a rash move. Why not wait for the [standards commissioner’s] investigation to be completed? If it’s going to cost the taxpayer money, why not hold off?” Reform has offered to meet the cost of the by-election itself, which is normally paid for from central government funds and is expected to cost in the region of £275,000, but such an arrangement would be unprecedented and could be blocked on grounds it risks influencing the outcome.

When asked whether the punt will pay off, Susan is less than convinced. “I’m not sure it’s a good idea. He puts on a good show. But he needs to keep showing that what he’s doing is good for the town and country.”

That mixture of loyalty and doubt is echoed across the constituency. Some voters are delighted to have another opportunity to endorse the man they hope will one day become prime minister. Given the growing democratic deficit, which compounds the pervasive and deep distrust voters in constituencies such as Clacton feel towards Westminster, there is obvious appeal in knowing their vote – as in Makerfield just a few weeks ago – could genuinely shape Britain’s future. But others who backed Farage two years ago confess to having creeping misgivings.

Jerry voted for Farage in 2024, but is much less enthusiastic today. Once we get past the expletives, he says: “Since the general election things have got worse and worse. Farage comes down here, says what you want to hear, but then doesn’t do anything.”

Barbara, by contrast, did not vote in the last general election. This time, she intends to back Reform. “I’m fed up with the political establishment,” she says, arguing money which could be spent on pensioners, such as her, is instead going to illegal migrants. “It’s an insult.”

For his part, Trevor, an antiques dealer, voted Reform in 2024 and will back Farage again because he believes politics is so “corrupt”.

Fellow Reform fan George and I speak in the Vine Tree Cafe on Rosemary Road, moments before he’s served bacon with bubble and squeak. He was a lifelong Conservative voter until, in 2024, he switched to Reform. “I’ve no objection to the by-election,” he says, almost ambivalently. “People are against him, everywhere you go. And now they’re bringing his daughter into it.” George is referring to the decision by The Times to publish a photograph of where Farage’s daughter lives, and footage released by the Reform leader that allegedly shows a journalist on her driveway.

Other supporters worry that for all his apparent defiance, Farage may in fact be wearying of frontline politics. “I don’t want him to give up,” says Ann. “Even now, we’re worried he’s going to back out. He’s done it before.”

Yet, not everyone is convinced. Whilst Farage won Clacton at the general election with 46.2 per cent of the vote – Reform’s strongest performance nationwide – a detectable anyone-but-him sentiment runs through the constituency.

Bob believes him to be a “grifter” with “something to hide”. A civil servant, who wished to remain unnamed, is more scathing still. He believes Brexit – the project with which Farage is most closely associated – was “a mess which cost us billions” and argues the Reform leader is failing to represent the constituency. He points to Farage’s opposition to Labour’s workers’ and renters’ rights bills as evidence of his disconnect with local residents and their needs. “All he’s doing now is bringing a circus to Clacton,” he sighs.

One 63-year-old charity worker, who preferred not to be named, intends to back Count Binface “for a laugh”. Like many, it seems, he is prepared to lend his vote to a candidate he would not ordinarily support if it helps get rid of Farage. It is a reminder that the Reform leader’s ability to inspire fierce loyalty can be matched by his capacity to unite otherwise unaligned opponents against him.

It will presumably not have gone unnoticed by Farage that Binface’s odds have been slashed from 20/1 to 4/1. Commentators are positing that there is no knowing what share of the vote he may yet capture, given the field has been left vacant by other more traditional challengers. On Wednesday, anti-Farage voters interviewed by The Telegraph in Clacton were more inclined to abstain than back the self-described intergalactic space warrior standing against him. But between now and polling day, Left-wing activists will seek to rally these locals behind Binface, as the best chance of stymieing Farage’s plans.

Ian, a police officer, voted for an independent candidate in 2024. He thinks this by-election is “a bit of a shocker” and entirely “unnecessary” – adding he will not cast a ballot himself. But he does not underestimate Farage’s political instincts. “He knows what he’s doing. He’s not far-Right, he’s just viewed as a saviour by people who are fed up.”

The absence of the major political parties has added to the sense of surreality surrounding the contest. Rachel Reeves, who as Chancellor has a formal role in granting Farage’s request to step down as an MP, paving the way for an election, said on Wednesday: “If he wants to spend the summer arguing with a bin, I won’t stop him.”

Kemi Badenoch, meanwhile, has described it as a “fake by-election” and suggested that, were she a Clacton resident, she would spend polling day elsewhere. “If I lived in Clacton, I think I would be sitting by the beach having a nice summer,” the Tory leader declared on this morning’s broadcast round. “That’s why the only person standing against Nigel Farage is Count Binface.” Badenoch has said her party would, however, put forward a candidate in a second by-election should the standards committee rule against a re-elected Farage and suspend him, triggering yet another ballot.

Whatever Westminster thinks of the poll invoked by Farage, for the man himself it matters a great deal. A victory is not merely about him safely returning to the House of Commons. It is an attempt to answer allegations of financial impropriety with the strongest weapon available to a populist politician: the approval of the electorate. “Every party wants Nigel to face scrutiny. He’s plucked the harshest scrutiny of all – the voters – and now those parties are annoyed as it’s not an election they can win,” says one senior Reform source.

The people who propelled Farage into Parliament on his eighth attempt have not lost sight of the concerns that motivated them to back Reform in the first place. They worry about immigration, deprivation, identity – it’s why they continue to support him. But two years after handing the Reform leader a commanding majority, some want more than another campaign: they want real change from the status quo they believe has failed them.

The risk for Farage is that the more he is seen to be playing politics, the more likely they are to conclude he is part of the problem, rather than the solution. Now, it seems, the Reform leader’s detractors will attempt to achieve exactly that outcome by going all in on Count Binface to turn Farage’s campaign into an embarrassing farce.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]