Cubans plead for regime change – just not the Trump variety

As Nicolás Maduro was flown blindfolded and handcuffed in a special forces helicopter to a New York jail, Cuban-Americans took to the streets to celebrate.

This was a moment they had been waiting on for decades, with many seeing it as a catalyst for change in Cuba – one that could free their nation from communist rule.

But 90 miles away in the beleaguered Caribbean island, the celebrations were more muted – especially after Donald Trump declared: “Cuba is ready to fall.”

Cubans told The Telegraph they wanted their own regime change – but not one that is forced on them by Washington. They fear a Trump-led takeover of the island after United States forces decapitated the Venezuelan regime in mere hours.

“We have to change our government – they failed. There are almost no communists left here among the people. But not a change ‘a la cañona’ – with cannons – like the Americans are doing,” one 32-year-old Cuban, who asked to remain anonymous, told The Telegraph. “What they did in Venezuela is crazy.”

Already in a persistent economic and humanitarian crisis, Cuba has floundered under the weight of a decades-long US economic embargo and is suffering from soaring inflation, food shortages and regular blackouts.

Around a quarter of Cuba’s 11.2 million population have left in the past five years and the country has become dependent on its oil-rich South American ally Venezuela for survival.

“Here in Cuba, the situation is a disgrace. The way we are living here is disgraceful, but that doesn’t mean I want Trump,” the Cuban added. “There has to be a change soon, but not with the Americans.”

Many Cuban-Americans cheered the news of Mr Maduro’s ousting, seeing it as a potential catalyst for change in Cuba, where human rights abuses and economic mismanagement are rife.

María Elvira Salaza, a Cuban-American Republican congresswoman, said: “For decades, the Cuban dictatorship has brought pain, suffering and chaos to its people and the entire hemisphere. Its time is running out. Freedom is coming.”

But there is a fractured response within Cuba between the old and the young.

It is both possible to “feel relief and to celebrate” the fall of Mr Maduro and be “against American intervention” in Cuba, a 34-year-old Cuban, who also wanted to remain anonymous over fears of speaking out, told The Telegraph.

They said most of their contemporaries were desperate for change, but were uncertain about what US interference in that fight would mean in the long term.

Another Cuban, 60, accused the US of carrying out its “invasion” of Venezuela in pursuit of its oil, “the only thing Americans are interested in”.

“The Americans have always thought of themselves as the owners of the world, and they have always done whatever they wanted,” he added, saying it was shameful that the world was just “sitting here and watching”.

For Cuba, analysts believe time is running out. They pointed to Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American US secretary of state and leading advocate for ending the regime in Havana, sending a fresh warning to its leaders.

“If I lived in Havana and was in the government, I’d be concerned,” he said from Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, shortly after Mr Trump declared the US would “run” Venezuela after seizing its leader.

Havana’s response was swift. The region is facing a “critical existential dilemma for our survival as nation states and independent, sovereign nations”, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, its foreign minister, said on Sunday.

The blustering rhetoric from Washington serves a strategic purpose, said Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.

“In the months leading up to Maduro’s capture, the chest-thumping bluffing is intended to provoke defections within his regime. Now, it is being used to play on fears and insecurities in the Cuban government they are next,” Mr Sabatini told The Telegraph.

“What it means in practice is that the US will have to match words with deeds at some point to avoid looking weak,” he added.

But the likelihood of a US military attack on Cuba appears low, for now.

“Cuba is not going to be an easy regime change, the system has been in place since 1959 and there is deep loyalty across government, military and security forces,” said Mr Sabatini. “It could provoke total upheaval and collapse and have huge unintended consequences on US politics and migration,” he added.

Havana’s leadership has also made it clear it won’t let go of its alliance with Venezuela without a fight.

Miguel Diaz-Canel, the Cuban president, staged a protest in front of the US embassy in Havana on Saturday as news of Mr Maduro’s overthrow spread across the island.

“For Venezuela, of course for Cuba, we are willing to give even our own lives, but at a heavy cost,” he told the crowd.

Cuba said it lost three dozen of its troops in the US night-time raid on Caracas, confirming long-held suspicions that its soldiers were protecting Mr Maduro. The US, in comparison, reported no fatalities.

But with the US blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, Cuba is now highly vulnerable to collapse.

Havana is deeply dependent on Venezuelan oil packages – to keep the country running and to resell on the international market to turn a quick profit and earn hard currency.

Without those imports, analysts warn its collapsing economy could grind to a halt or Washington may use it as a bargaining chip against the country.

In exchange for the fuel, Havana for decades sent Venezuela a steady stream of doctors, military advisers and intelligence officers.

The risk is this assistance could end under Delcy Rodríguez, a Maduro loyalist and Mr Trump’s chosen successor who was sworn in as Venezuela’s president on Monday. The US president has threatened her with a fate “worse than Maduro” if she does not co-operate.

Cuba also receives oil from Russia and Mexico, the latter overtaking Venezuela as the top crude supplier to the island last year, according to a report by the Financial Times, citing industry data.

But Cuba’s allies, including Iran, China and Russia, are unlikely to fill the void of Venezuelan oil.

Havana’s government is expected to put its faith in Moscow, which has been strengthening its military and economic co-operation with the country.

And yet, Mr Sabatini argued: “Russia is not likely to put its military, diplomatic or national power on the line for Cuba when it comes with Trump: it did very little in Venezuela, so did China.”

Mexico, which has deep ties to the Cuban government and is also a key US trading partner, could supply more free oil to Cuba – as it has been doing in recent years.

But “becoming Cuba’s patron” risks putting Mexico “on a collision course with Washington”, said Sebastian Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute.

For those in Cuba, there isn’t a consensus over what will happen to them now.

A 24-year-old said the fallout of recent events in Venezuela were ricocheting through the population. “This is very sensitive. But I believe it gives us hope.”

“Nobody in the world who isn’t Venezuelan or Cuban truly knows what it means to live under these kinds of regimes and dictatorships,” he said, with “so many broken families, broken dreams and lives”.

“I don’t know whether to trust Trump or not,” he added. “Of course, an intervention in Cuba is scary… war is scary. But I don’t care if I die tomorrow, I want a change here. We will have to see after, if it was for better or for worse.”

[Source: Daily Telegraph]