Why Iraq is walking a tightrope between Trump and Tehran

Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the Iraqi prime minister gunning for a second term in the country’s elections on Tuesday, has many strings to his bow.

Highlights of his political career include a stint as mayor of a town that became a centre of resistance against Saddam Hussein and a period as minister of human rights, which involved hunting mass graves and investigating Islamic State atrocities.

But since he became prime minister in October 2022, Mr al-Sudani has acquired a new, no less vital skill: tightrope walking.

It is this ability – balancing the influence of the US and Iran while delivering improvements to public services and keeping Iraq out of the conflict that has consumed the Middle East since Oct 7 2023 – that he hopes will propel him to victory in Tuesday’s elections.

Mr al-Sudani has cast himself as the figurehead who can finally lead Iraq out of decades of strife and make the country a success.

And he has what seems to be a golden opportunity to achieve what all the blood and money expended by the US and its allies since 2003 could not.

In the past decade, Iraq has been beset on all sides by destabilising influences: Syria’s civil war, the conflict between Turkey and the PKK Kurdish rebels, the activities of Hezbollah and the terror campaigns of Isis.

Yet within the past year or so, many – if not all – of these influences have evaporated. And when the last American troops leave Iraq next year, the country will be free of foreign military personnel for the first time in more than 20 years.

At a recent briefing inside Mr al-Sudani’s palace complex in the heart of Baghdad’s secure zone, which still bristles with armoured vehicles and security forces, the prime minister reflected on the opportunity this moment presents.

“It is the right time for parliamentary elections,” he said. “The Iraq of 2025 is not like the Iraq of 2014. There were 86 coalition countries in Iraq, which was akin to an occupation. But now the battle against Isis is over and there is stability.”

He singled out the peace deal between Turkey and the PKK, struck in May this year to end a conflict that began in 1978 and spilled into Iraq on several occasions, as being a particularly significant breakthrough.

“We have been searching for a treaty for over 40 years,” he said. “The presence of the PKK caused suffering on Iraqi soil and foreign interference, with the Turkish army on Iraqi soil, undermines Iraq’s sovereignty.”

He was also keen to tout his success in attracting American investment to Baghdad, evidence of which could be seen in the frenzied construction work going on across the capital.

“Our relationship has been accelerating lately, especially regarding the economy and investment. There are lots of American companies here,” he told The Telegraph.

Perhaps the greatest obstacle to Mr al-Sudani’s goal of securing long-term stability is the influence of Iraq’s militia groups, many of which are backed by Iran. They have come to dominate the political landscape through patronage or outright intimidation.

But the prime minister believes they can be incorporated into the state’s security forces.

“There is no excuse for weapons to remain outside state control,” he added. “Those who carry arms can either join the army or enter politics, and future policies should set an example to preserve this.”

While he claimed the government had been in talks with militia groups over this process, experts remain sceptical.

“Sudani hasn’t explained how he’ll do this, and if he has a plan, he is keeping his cards close to his chest,” said Tamer Badawi, an associate fellow at Rusi, the UK defence think tank. “He’d need to build extensive political consensus.”

He is also contending with far-reaching apathy that has dogged all of the seven elections held since the fall of Hussein.

Moqtada al-Sadr, the prominent Shia nationalist cleric whose bloc won the most seats in the 2021 ballot, is boycotting the upcoming elections and has called on his legions of supporters not to vote.

“We were hoping the Sadrists would take part in the elections and have their own representatives,” said Mr al-Sudani.

Then there is the question of whether Iraq is ready to manage its own security without help from the US, with Mr al-Sudani adamant that the country is prepared to take on the challenge.

“Iraq is capable of protecting its own soil and maintaining stability for its citizens, who have been through so much,” he said. “Eventually, the type and shape of our relationship will be based on information exchange, consultation and advice for our forces.”

On Karrada Street, in an upscale Baghdad shopping district near the banks of the Tigris, where more than 300 people were killed during an Isis truck bomb attack in 2016, the apathy of Iraqi voters – and some of their old allegiances – were on full display.

Azhar Zuhair, a 41-year-old IT worker, said: “I voted in 2005, but since then I haven’t. I don’t even have a voter card any more because nothing has changed.

“Democracy doesn’t benefit us here… For Iraq, with all its different groups, a presidential system suits us. The parliamentary system does not work here.”

Hussein’s dictatorship? “That system worked for us,” he said.

Wissam Salah, a 28-year-old engineer, was one of only a handful of people who told The Telegraph they intended to vote on Tuesday.

“Very few people are voting, only those who have their own party base, their own leaders to follow. The parties buy votes, they control jobs. If you work for them, your salary comes through them. You depend on them,” he explained.

“I believe in change – even if it’s small – in independent candidates with a real electoral plan, not those who say ‘we will do this and that’ and then do nothing.”

‘Al-Sudani reminiscent of Trojan horse’

There is certainly no shortage of candidates for Tuesday’s elections. In total, there are 7,744 candidates competing, most of them from a range of largely sectarian-aligned parties, along with some independents.

They include Shiite blocs led by Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister, cleric Ammar al-Hakim and several linked to armed groups; two competing Sunni factions led by Mohamed al-Halbousi and Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the former and current parliamentary speakers; and two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

But even if his fragile coalition of mostly Iran-backed parties wins the election, Mr al-Sudani may still fail to secure a second term.

The election winner has never gone on to become prime minister in any of the previous votes.

Whether Mr al-Sudani succeeds in this will depend on the outcome of complex government-formation talks after the ballot.

Analysts believe Mr al-Sudani is betting that he can play his fractious coalition against itself to secure his nomination.

“Sudani is reminiscent of a Trojan horse,” said Mr Badawi. “His Coordination Framework supporters initially saw him as a proxy, but he has since come to believe he can outmanoeuvre the old guard and use divide-and-rule tactics within the coalition, positioning himself to sway and even co-lead it.”

Without serious structural reforms to Iraq’s elections, analysts have said they will continue to function as a way for the country’s political elites to jostle for power, rather than serving as genuine routes for citizens to win accountability.

At a recent pro-democracy forum in Baghdad, the fatalism that grips many Iraqis was clear. While Iraqi experts and politicians discussed participation and voter confidence, one translator leaned over and said: “These idiots don’t know what they’re talking about. Strength is the only thing that works here.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]