Xi Jinping’s military purge hits Taiwan invasion plans

When China’s top leaders gathered in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People last month, the focus wasn’t on who was in the room – but who was missing.

Photos from the major planning meeting, known as the Fourth Plenum, showed conspicuous rows of empty seats below the bright red curtains and national emblem.

In fact, the meeting had the lowest attendance rate in almost 50 years. Nearly 20 per cent of the Communist Party’s central committee and nearly half of the chief military organ – the Central Military Commission (CMC) – were absent.

Days before China’s leadership convened, the country’s defence ministry confirmed that nine senior generals had been fired. These included He Weidong, who had served as vice-chairman of the CMC and as such was the second-highest-ranking official in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

At least 50 figures across China’s political and military system have been confirmed to have been pushed aside since Xi Jinping launched his anti-corruption campaign in 2012, but the seniority and expertise of the latest nine have fuelled speculation surrounding Beijing’s military plans – or the lack thereof.

Xi’s push for Taiwan

Mr Xi has made clear that his top priority is the “reunification” of Taiwan and has not ruled out the use of force in bringing the country under Chinese rule.

While many in the West believe that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be imminent – especially after Xi reportedly said he wanted his troops prepared by 2027 – experts told The Telegraph that it was unlikely the Chinese leader would be wiping out so many key players and leaving their seats vacant if this was the case.

Among the nine generals fired in October, seven had previously served in the Eastern Theatre Command (ETC), which is responsible for Taiwan planning. Mr He specifically was seen as a key architect of the Taiwan contingency.

Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said: “Removal of the PLA’s Taiwan specialists probably dialled China’s doomsday clock on Taiwan invasion plans.

“No rational actor would attempt to launch complex missions like a Taiwan invasion with close to half of the top-level chain of command falling off the chain.”

Close ally expelled

Most analysts agree that the primary motivation for the purges is ridding the party of corruption and ensuring that all loyalty remains firmly with Mr Xi.

For those reasons, Mr He’s dismissal came as a surprise to many because he was believed to be one of the Chinese leader’s closest allies.

The disgraced general was a member of the Fujian clique, a network of officers who knew Xi during his time in Fujian province from 1985 to 2002.

His expulsion added another jolt to an already shaky system.

Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said: “Morale is really low. Everyone is looking over their shoulder and everyone is worried that their patronage network of getting promoted through the ranks is being questioned and scrutinised.”

While some China watchers maintain that within a highly centralised system like the PLA it does not matter who sits in what seat, others, like Mr Morris, disagree, especially when it comes to Taiwan.

“There’s no way it can’t affect planning for a Taiwan contingency,” he said.

“He Weidong was one of the most experienced planners for a Taiwan contingency, probably in the top two or three, and now he’s gone and all his underlings are gone. That affects planning all throughout the force, there’s a trickle down effect.”

Alongside Mr He, Lin Xiangyang, the head of the ETC, as well as Miao Hua, the director of the CMC’s political work department who had previously served in the frontline unit stationed directly across from Taiwan, were also both confirmed to be out in October.

Additionally, Wang Zhongcai, the commander of the ETC’s navy, and Ding Laifu, the commander of the a group army within the ETC, are both believed to have been under investigation since March.

Michael Clarke, a senior defence and security lecturer at Deakin University, said that the demise of so many of those with Taiwan-specific experience likely means that Mr Xi is either “not confident of the ETC or the PLA Navy’s abilities to carry off a protracted blockade and/or amphibious assault on Taiwan or that the relative clean out of the top levels of the ETC and PLA navy means that Xi may have to explore alternative approaches/strategies to ‘reunify’ Taiwan”.

Struggles at the top

Mr He’s removal has also been seen as a sign of Mr Xi’s loyalty to Zhang Youxia, the first-ranked vice chairman of the CMC.

While there has long-been speculation of a feud between the two men, K. Tristan Tang, an associate fellow at Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation, doesn’t think that this is the case.

Mr Xi seemed to go out of his way to protect Mr Youxia from an earlier wave of purges in 2023 and continues to travel outside of Beijing, which he would not do if his leadership was at risk, said Mr Tang.

“More importantly, if he was really worried about Zhang Youxia, he would not purge He Weidong, his loyalist from Fujian and a good friend,” he said.

Mr He’s dismissal has also been interpreted as an endorsement of Mr Youxia’s more traditional combat-readiness approach, compared to Mr He’s non-kinetic methods of reconnaissance and harassment.

Mr He was a leading proponent of China’s “grey zone” harassment of Taiwan – intimidation tactics that fall short of warfare but are intended to destabilise the country ahead of an invasion.

However, while Mr Tang found that there has been a drop in the number of joint combat readiness patrols around Taiwan since August – a few months after Mr He was first rumoured to be under investigation – other grey zone tactics, such as cyber attacks and aerial incursions, are still on the rise.

Analysts have also looked at Mr He’s replacement, Zhang Shengmin, for potential insight on the PLA’s agenda.

Mr Shengmin is seen as the tsar of the anti-corruption campaign and spent most of his career as the former political commissar of the PLA’s rocket force.

Some believe that Mr Shengmin’s past experience in the rocket force signals that the PLA will shift even more towards its missile program, while others see his appointment simply as a placeholder.

“I would not recommend jumping to conclusions to use who is being an acting officer or acting commander as an indicator for Xi Jinping’s new direction because a lot of people are being purged,” said Mr Tang.

“Who becomes an acting commander today could be purged in the coming months.”

[Source: Daily Telegraph]