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All of a sudden, Putin is willing to throw Iran under the bus
America should take advantage of this situation to show Russia’s other partners the emptiness of the Kremlin’s friendship
President Trump has warned Iran that a US naval “armada” was heading toward the Gulf. Russia’s MFA, meanwhile, has advised against travel to Iran. As Washington hints that strikes on Iran remain an option amid growing anti-regime protests, the crisis has exposed the limits of Russia’s ties with the Islamic Republic.
While Moscow and Tehran have long partnered to oppose the West, Russia is not willing to put itself in harm’s way for Iran. The United States should take advantage of this situation to show Putin’s other partners the emptiness of the Kremlin’s friendship.
Since the collapse of Iran’s local currency on December 28, protests have erupted throughout the country. In response to reports of deaths well into the thousands, Trump has threatened intervention and urged Iranians to “KEEP PROTESTING … HELP IS ON ITS WAY”.
During a January 12 meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, “condemned the latest attempt by foreign forces to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs”. Moscow is wary of further American or Israeli military intervention in Iran, and does not want to see the friendly regime in Tehran toppled by an American-backed uprising.
Over the last decade, Iran and Russia have cultivated a strategic relationship. Despite a legacy of mutual mistrust, that partnership has warmed since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Iran has supplied Russia with weapons for its invasion, most importantly large quantities of Shahed long-range kamikaze drones for bombarding civilian infrastructure.
In return, Moscow offered Tehran unprecedented defence cooperation, potentially including a sale of Su-35 fighter jets – a major upgrade for Iran’s outdated air force.
Although Iran remains an important partner, Moscow’s reliance on Tehran has waned. Russia, with Iranian help, localised production of Shahed drones in 2023. At present, China and North Korea are far more significant supporters of Russia’s war effort. The Russo-Iranian partnership also took a blow in December 2024 with the ouster of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, whom Moscow and Tehran had jointly propped up since 2015.
In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” covering all aspects of their relationship, including cooperation against Western sanctions. But while the treaty outlines various forms of military cooperation, it stops short of any commitment to mutual defence. Russia, which seeks to maintain ties with all players in the Middle East, does not want to go “all in” on Iran. Nor is Moscow keen to risk its skin in a conflict in which core interests aren’t at stake.
The limits of Russia’s (and China’s) commitment to Iran came into full view last summer when the Israeli and then American militaries humiliated the regime in Tehran. Israel quickly decimated Iran’s air defences (including Russian-made missile systems) and ballistic missile capabilities, paving the way for strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Although Tehran dispatched foreign minister Abbas Araghchi to meet with Putin, he returned empty handed.
In the current crisis, Moscow again appears resigned to sitting on the sidelines. Even its words of condemnation feel half-hearted.
Vladimir Putin fears regime change as that would destabilise Russia, and on January 16 he only offered mediation. Putin’s priority is staying in Trump’s good graces amid peace talks over Ukraine, so the autocrat has distanced himself by letting Russia’s ministry of foreign affairs take the lead, with spokeswoman Maria Zakharova labelling Trump’s threats “categorically unacceptable” and Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov emphasised that any third party cannot change “the fundamental nature of the relationship between Moscow and Tehran.”
The most Moscow might do is supply Tehran with arms, but even that likely would not have a decisive effect. Between December 27 and January 1, a handful of Russian and Belarusian Il-76 transport aircraft flew to Iran, carrying unknown cargo. Iran could seek Russia’s help in rebuilding its air defences, but that will take time, and Moscow is currently focused on meeting its own military’s needs in Ukraine.
For years, Russia has been working around the clock to paint Nato as a paper tiger. Now Washington has an opportunity to turn the tables. Even as President Trump continues negotiations with Russia, the American government should consider employing influence operations showing Moscow’s other partners that, if push came to shove, Putin would throw them under the bus too.
[Source: Daily Telegraph]
