‘It’s Reform’s election to lose’: The town ready to turn its back on Starmer

On Tuesday morning the sun is shining on Essex after weeks of persistent rain, and on Grays High Street, in Thurrock, there is relief in the air.

Thurrock had been one of 30 local councils across England planning to delay their local elections this year as part of Labour’s flagship devolution plans, denying 4.6 million voters the opportunity to vent their frustrations at the ballot box.

But that changed on Monday, when Sir Keir Starmer announced that – following a Campaign for Democracy by the Telegraph and a legal appeal by Reform – the votes would be held this year after all.

It is the latest in a string of about-turns the Government has made since winning the General Election in 2024. And it means that in May, the people of Thurrock will have the chance to vote for long-awaited change in their local government. All 49 spots on the Labour-run council will be up for grabs after years of mismanagement and scandal that culminated in the authority being bailed out by central government.

“The council elections have been long overdue,” says Neil Andrews, 47, a lettings manager. “I hope we get the right people, because there have been a number of issues [with the council] over the years.”

In his case, the “right people” means Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party is set to be the big winner in Thurrock, where years of frustration with the Conservatives have given way to frustration with Labour.

“It’s going to be Reform UK,” Andrews says. “I very much doubt Labour or anybody else has a chance at the moment, especially with the [national] politics that’s on the news. I’m not 100 per cent sure there’s anyone in Reform who could lead a government. But it seems like a party that maybe doesn’t have as much of its own agenda as the others.”

MJ Pink, 57, a retired financial services professional, agrees that it is crucial elections are held this year.

“I think it’s really good,” she says. “We need to feel like we’re free to have that vote. Other councils were getting it, so why not Thurrock? And I always think, ‘if you’re doing a good job, what have you got to worry about?’ I have been very disappointed [by the council] so it will be good to give someone else a chance.

“It was worrying when it looked like we wouldn’t have [the elections],” she adds. “I’ve got friends who live in different areas and they were going to be able to vote, so I thought, ‘why can’t we?’”

She, too, is planning to vote for Reform. “They’re the only ones who haven’t really had a go, so I think ‘go on, show us what you can do’. There are so many local issues.”

Polling data suggests that Andrews and Pink are far from alone. A report by JL Partners published in January, when it still looked as though the local elections would be cancelled, suggested Reform would win convincingly in Thurrock, with a projected 34 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 15 per cent and Labour on 14 per cent.

“Reform will have their sights on places like Thurrock,” says Jim Blagden, associate director at JL Partners. “The fact that it is all 49 seats up for election gives them a really good opportunity to win a majority in one go.

“It is a much bigger prize than some of the other councils where only a third are [in] play,” he adds. “Our polling suggests that issues such as immigration, crime and anti-social behaviour are going to be at the top of many voters’ minds. It is Reform’s election to lose.”

The change in Thurrock is representative of national trends. According to Telegraph analysis of a mega-poll of 5,000 voters, Labour is on course to lose majorities in 10 of the councils that previously planned to delay their elections.

On average, Reform is predicted to win 28 per cent of the vote in those contests, with the Tories on 21 per cent and Labour on 17 per cent. As well as Thurrock, Farage’s party is expected to seize Blackburn with Darwen, Cannock Chase, Exeter, Preston and Worthing from Labour.

Thurrock council is currently made up of 26 Labour councillors, 12 Conservatives, five from the Non-Political Alliance of Independent Councillors, three from Reform and three Independents. The local MP is Labour’s Jen Craft.

“[The council elections] are very good for democracy, it’s a very positive thing,” says Russell Cherry, one of the three Reform councillors. “People have been crying out for the opportunity to vote. Democracy must happen.

“I think it’s going to be a whitewash,” he adds. “Labour and Starmer aren’t liked. A lot of people in Thurrock voted Labour to punish the Tories, and now they realise what a mistake they made, so they’re going to support Reform because we have some great policies.

“This will be a referendum on Keir Starmer. He has done so much that wasn’t in their [Labour’s] manifesto. He has U-turned and U-turned. He’s destroying the economy and people are getting poorer.”

George Coxshall, the leader of the Conservatives on the council, agrees. “I’m pleased the Government has changed their mind and U-turned again,” he says. “It has humiliated everyone who walked up the hill saying they could delay the elections. People are frustrated. They don’t see things are changing. They [feel] they are paying more money for less services.”

None of the Labour councillors approached by the Telegraph offered comment. On Monday, Lynn Worrall, Thurrock council leader, said the Government’s change of heart was “disappointing”, especially as it had been made “so late in the day”.

But, she added: “We have always stood ready to deliver all-out elections in Thurrock this May, and we will now move forward with our plans.”

In recent years, Thurrock has been an unfortunate poster child for local council mismanagement.

Starting in the 2010s, the council poured hundreds of millions of pounds into solar energy schemes. When the investments failed to deliver as hoped, the council was left with debts of nearly £1.5bn.

In 2022, the council was forced to issue a Section 114 notice, a local government equivalent of declaring bankruptcy, after being left with a funding gap of £470m.

In February 2023, it was granted special permission to put up council tax by 9.99 per cent, and a month later it requested exceptional financial support from central government. Last June, the Serious Fraud Office announced it was opening an investigation into alleged multi-million pound fraud relating to the solar investments.

This is on top of the usual issues blighting areas across England, such as potholes, bin collection and housing. This ignominious record meant few were surprised when it was reported that Thurrock would be one of the councils applying to delay their council elections this year.

As part of Labour’s plan for local government reforms – which will see larger unitary authorities replacing all remaining two-tier councils – authorities had been permitted to apply to postpone votes until 2027, when the new boundaries would be in place.

The Government’s view had been that the looming reorganisation made some elections this summer unnecessary, given that they will have to be run again in a year’s time for the new unitary authorities. They are also expensive at a time when neither local nor national government has much financial headroom.

However, critics accused Labour of “running scared of voters” dismayed with the party’s performance in government.

While this week’s about-turn has been welcomed by voters in the affected councils, it does little to suggest Labour has the courage of its convictions on one of its flagship policies.

Despite the sense of national and local mismanagement, however, some Labour voters on Grays High Street remain loyal.

Brian Whighten, 70, says he will be sticking with Starmer’s party. “I’m pleased the elections will happen, although they’ve left it a bit late,” he says. “The Greens are looking quite attractive, but at the moment I’d like to give Labour more of a chance. It took the Tories 14 years to destroy it all so let’s hope Labour can do something and change it.”

He adds, however, that Starmer’s party seems to have the unfortunate habit of “shooting themselves in the foot”.

And if polling data is to be believed, many voters have already decided enough is enough.

Across the country, Reform UK is surfing a wave of frustration with both Labour and the Conservatives. Thurrock, where this general ennui is combined with a particularly enervating scandal, presents Farage and his colleagues with a perfect target.

After the elections in May, this unassuming town may serve as a preview not just of the future of Essex, but of the future of Britain at large.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]