Labour ‘to come third in key by-election’

Labour is on track to finish third in next week’s Gorton and Denton by-election, behind the Green Party and Reform UK, a new poll suggests.

The survey found that 22 per cent of voters in the Greater Manchester constituency intended to back the Greens on Feb 26.

Twenty per cent said they would support Reform, with just 18 per cent planning to opt for Labour, according to the poll of 452 people.

Such a result would mean the election of a fifth Green Party MP and plunge Sir Keir Starmer into a fresh crisis.

The poll, conducted by Omnisis, shows that the contest remains on a knife edge, with 27 per cent of respondents saying they were still undecided. 

When undecided voters were excluded, 33 per cent of those surveyed said they would back the Greens, 29 per cent Reform and 26 per cent Labour, with 12 per cent opting for other parties.

Zack Polanski, the Green leader, said: “This is huge – and proves exactly what we’re saying. We cannot have a moment of complacency. Only the Green Party can stop Reform.”

A Reform source called the findings a “dud poll”, saying it had a “tiny” sample size and a “crazy number” of undecided voters. The source questioned who had paid for the research.

Lucy Powell, the deputy Labour leader, also sought to downplay the findings of the poll, saying: “Gorton and Denton is a constituency of two halves. 

“After thousands and thousands of conversations, the story is clear – only Labour has the breadth and depth to beat Reform.”

A Labour source claimed the poll was not credible – pointing out that it was commissioned by Opal Limited, which has previously donated £10,000 to the Greens.

Critics say the Gorton and Denton ballot is a crucial test for the Prime Minister’s leadership and could even spell the end of his time in office if it goes disastrously wrong for Labour.

The local elections on May 7, when polls will take place in Wales, Scotland and London, are seen as the moment of maximum peril.

Last month, the first poll in the Gorton and Denton by-election put Reform on course for victory after Sir Keir and his allies blocked Andy Burnham from standing.

A survey of 143 people by Find Out Now had Reform on 30 per cent, Labour on 27 per cent and the Greens on 17 per cent.

The polling suggested Labour would have won almost half of the vote (49 per cent) if Mr Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, had been allowed to contest the seat.

Mr Burnham had declared his intention to leave his mayoral post and return to Westminster. However, he was blocked from doing so by allies of Sir Keir on Labour’s ruling body amid claims the Prime Minister was trying to avoid a potential leadership challenge.

The Gorton and Denton by-election was triggered last month after Andrew Gwynne stood down in response to a leak of abusive messages he sent on WhatsApp.

Hannah Spencer, the Green candidate in the contest, is up against Labour hopeful Angeliki Stogia, a former councillor, and Reform contender Matthew Goodwin, a former academic who is now a campaigner and television personality.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]