Labour plummets to new low in polls after Rayner and Mandelson scandals

Labour has plummeted to a new low in the polls after the Angela Rayner and Lord Mandelson scandals.

A poll published on Friday put Sir Keir Starmer’s party at 16 per cent of the vote, the lowest share it has recorded since taking power in July 2024.

It has been a torrid few weeks for the Prime Minister, whose planned reset of his premiership was overshadowed within days by Ms Rayner’s resignation.

The MP for Ashton-under-Lyne quit as Sir Keir’s deputy, as well as deputy Labour leader and housing secretary, on Sept 5 after a Telegraph investigation into her tax affairs.

Six days later, Sir Keir sacked Lord Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to the US after new emails revealed the extent of his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

A poll of 4,795 adults by Find Out Now, conducted on Sept 17 and 18, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied at 16 per cent, with Labour down three points on the previous week.

Reform UK was comfortably in front with 34 per cent, in a sign that Nigel Farage’s party is continuing to make gains at the expense of both Labour and the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats were on 13 per cent, up one point on the previous week, while the Greens were on 12 per cent.

The next general election is not expected until 2029 but the Electoral Calculus website suggests the data in the poll would hand Reform 452 seats– a Commons majority of 264.

Sir Ed Davey’s party, meanwhile, would become the official opposition on 52 seats. Labour would hold on to just 44 seats and the Tories would be reduced to a rump of 19 MPs.

Labour won 34 per cent of the popular vote at its landslide general election victory in July 2024, suggesting the party could have lost more than half of its support since the last national ballot.

Slight hope for Labour

A separate poll conducted by More in Common between Sept 12 and 15 offered a slightly more hopeful picture for Labour, putting the party on 22 per cent.

However, it was still down by two points on the previous week after the Rayner and Mandelson scandals, with Reform out in front again on 31 per cent.

There was a glimmer of light this week for Sir Keir and Shabana Mahmood, his new Home Secretary, as two migrants were finally deported under the “one in, one out” deal with France.

But Channel crossings remain at a record high, with hundreds more Channel migrants successfully reaching the UK on Friday.

Last week, Clive Lewis, a prominent critic of Sir Keir from the Left of his party, became the first Labour MP to suggest the Prime Minister should go.

While no other MPs have followed suit, speculation is rife in Westminster that Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, could return to the Commons and challenge Sir Keir for the leadership.

Labour’s dire polling heightens the stakes for the party’s annual conference, which begins in Liverpool a week on Sunday Sept 28, as well as Rachel Reeves’s make-or-break Budget on Nov 26.

[Source: Daily Telegraph]