Reform Scotland first to launch Holyrood manifesto – but personalities, not policy, dominate

Commonplace throughout Europe, populist parties are in the ascendancy; and some have even entered government or form the principal opposition. However to date in Scotland, they have held limited appeal. For instance, UK Independence Party and offshoots like the Brexit Party failed to make the same influence on the political debate in Scotland as it did in England. But Nigel Farage’s latest venture is fundamentally different.

Reform is already having an impact in Scotland, both locally and nationally. They have consistently performed well in council by-elections over the past year, typically ranging from 15-30% of the vote, and picked up their first directly elected councillor after a wave of defections largely from the Scottish Conservatives. While they failed to win the 2025 Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Scottish Parliament by-election, they came a very close third on 26%. The fledging party also has its first MSP, Graham Simpson, who defected from the Scottish Conservatives and rumours abound about who could also jump ship.

Nigel Farage, who once had to seek shelter from boisterous protestors in a pub during an ill-fated trip to Edinburgh over a decade ago, has more confidence in increasing the frequency of visits north of the border. Indeed, he was on hand to help launch Reform Scotland’s manifesto for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election in Bishopton just outside Glasgow, becoming the first of the main parties to do so.

In terms of the headline announcements from the manifesto, there were bold and eye-catching pledges to cut income tax below the rest of the UK, tougher sentences for repeat offenders and ending the early release of prisoners, the creation of a Scottish Healthcare Reform Commission, while also slashing quangos and net zero policies to fund those aforesaid tax cuts. With the latter, this earned a rebuke from the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank who said the plan lacked fiscal credibility as the Scottish fiscal framework prevents funding provided by the UK Government for capital investment from being used to pay for tax cuts.

Nonetheless, the launch itself was remembered not so much for the policies but the immediate aftermath – in the space of a week, the party lost five of its candidates. To compound matters, this has now risen to eight and the party’s press officer also quit. Then the party’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, came under fire for homophobic comments he made at a rugby club dinner back in 2018, with the Scottish First Minister John Swinney labelling him unfit to hold public office.

As a former UK Government Minister and successful businessman – someone who was initially spoken of well by sections of the Scottish commentariat – Offord was meant to bring credibility and a level of seriousness to a party which had operated for months without a Scottish figurehead. Reform is not known from shying away from controversy but Offord has become the centre of the story for unwanted reasons, with many questioning his leadership.

The increased scrutiny on Reform appears to have had an impact on the polls. The party had been in second place but a few polls conducted following the manifesto launch has seen them slip below Scottish Labour and indeed one showed them trailing the Scottish Greens. With the Scottish National Party (SNP) all but certain to claim victory and form the next Scottish Government, the most intriguing battle will be between Labour, Reform and the Greens as to who will be Scotland’s official opposition.

With Offord shifting from being an asset to more of a liability, opponents are smelling blood. The Scottish Conservatives have increased their attacks on Reform, highlighting candidates who have previously expressed support for Scottish independence in an attempt to stop the drift of right of centre unionists. Scottish Labour have seized on the aforementioned polls to argue that Reform have peaked and the momentum is with Labour in a two-horse race between them and the SNP. We can expect more musical chairs between the three parties jostling for second best in the weeks ahead.

With under thirty days to go until the election, Reform Scotland will hope that they can switch the narrative back to policy rather than the focus being on the quality of some of their aspiring MSPs.