Holyrood 2026: The State of the Polls in Scotland

In the lead up to the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election, there’s been a flurry of striking opinion polls. Of course, they all come with a health warning. Different companies use different techniques and methodologies; and some can be outliers, while others successfully mirror public opinion. And the polling industry isn’t infallible – indeed, in recent British political history, they have been found wide of the mark. But what have some of the main polls said thus far?

Back in February, the first MRP poll of the campaign sent shockwaves throughout the Scottish commentariat, suggesting that the Scottish National Party (SNP) would be on course to win 67 out of 129 seats at the Scottish Parliament, a second outright majority in recent history. This is significant in itself given their longevity in office but also that First Minister John Swinney asserts this would be a sufficient to mandate opening negotiations with the UK Government for indyref 2.

The Scottish electorate will be faced with two voting papers in May: one to choose a local constituency MSP using first-past-the-post and a second to vote for a political party in their larger region. The regional Additional Members System are then allocated proportionally from party lists. The aforesaid poll placed the SNP on 35% under the constituency vote, which is much lower than their performance in 2021, but they would sweep the board due to a fragmented unionist opposition comprising Labour, Reform, Conservatives and Lib Dems, while the other main pro-independence party, the Scottish Greens, will confine itself to the second regional list vote, meaning the SNP won’t face an indy competitor in most constituency seats.

Should the MRP poll be translated into the result in May, it would be catastrophic not only for Scottish Labour but also the Scottish Conservatives too who would be reduced to a rump. However, as noted, polls come with caveats and notwithstanding that, as many as four in ten voters saying they may change their mind before polling day so all is to play for. And two other polls have managed to give Scottish Labour a glimmer of hope that all is not lost.

In March, Scottish Labour saw a four-point increase in its constituency vote and one-point in the regionals according to Ipsos Scotland which would see them in second place, overtaking Reform. The previous month, YouGov found that 58% of Scots disapproved of the record of the Scottish Government, with just 22% cent approving of its performance. If Anas Sarwar can get the focus back to bread and butter issues, tapping into voter disenchantment, he may be able to revitalise Labour’s chances. Indeed, he has already taken a rather unorthodox approach to bolster his appeal – by taking on his own party and calling on the UK Prime Minister to resign.

Finally, Lord Ashcroft’s poll caused a bit of a stir. This put the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote and 31% on the regional list (again, down on 2021). Such numbers would, however, deliver a fifth consecutive term in office, despite the fact that only four in ten voters who backed the SNP in 2021 think the party is doing a good job in government. Yet again, here comes the caveats: Lord Ashcroft’s polling made no seat projections. The methodology used is different from most other pollsters and there should be considerable caution in making seat projections from the data…although this didn’t stop a bullish Scottish Greens from doing so, as they speculated they would double their number of MSPs.

It may be a bit of a tired cliché but the only real opinion poll that matters will be conducted on Thursday 7th May.