What’s next for Viktor Orban?
Hungary’s former strongman relinquished power with no dramatics – but poll defeat is unlikely to be his final act
After 16 years as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán’s bruising re-election campaign petered out surprisingly early with a gracious concession speech.
There were no last-minute dramatics, as some had predicted, when the final ballots were counted in Europe’s most consequential election this year.
As the sun rose over the Danube on Monday, it was evident that Mr Orbán, Europe’s closest leader to both Donald Trump, the US president, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, was facing a dramatic political collapse.
The defeat might spell the end of Hungary’s obstruction of European Union decision-making and its pandering to the Kremlin.
It does not mean, however, the complete demise of Mr Orban, who has been a dominant force in the world of conservative politics for longer than most.
The Telegraph has explored what could come next for one of Europe’s most controversial political figures.
Resistance
In his concession speech to supporters of his Fidesz party, Mr Orbán said: “Whatever happens we will serve our country and the Hungarian nation from opposition as well.
“We no longer bear the burden of government, now we need to strengthen our communities.”
With some 99 per cent of the votes counted, his party was on course to secure just 55 of the Hungarian parliament’s 199 seats, down from 133 in 2022.
Meanwhile, Peter Magyar’s Tisza was projected to win a two-thirds majority of 138 seats.
Serving in opposition will be a challenge for Mr Orbán given his party’s meagre return in the polls.
In theory, though, Fidesz will play a major role in scrutinising the new government.
Mr Orbán’s 16 years as the dominant figure in Hungarian politics mean much of the country’s views have been shaped by him.
And despite having only a limited number of MPs, in opposition he will still have plenty of allies who have become entrenched in the institutions that manage the country on a day-to-day basis.
Recent history – whether it be Mr Trump in the US, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel or Andrej Babis in the Czech Republic – has shown populist leaders are able to regain power following electoral defeat to more mainstream figures.
Mr Orbán will no doubt seek inspiration from his powerful ally in the White House rather than walking away from politics altogether.
Coming to America
Mr Orbán’s close bond with Mr Trump means a move to the US should not be beyond consideration.
The US president dispatched JD Vance, his vice-president, to Budapest to help with the re-election campaign.
“I love Viktor,” Mr Trump said, speaking by telephone from Washington to a gathering of Fidesz supporters in the Hungarian capital last Tuesday.
And Mr Orbán would no doubt be made to feel at home in the US because of his political affinity with the president.
The former Hungarian leader would join his eldest daughter, who last year moved to New York to study more than a decade after spending time on an exchange programme at Boston University.
Look who’s talking
A move to the international speakers’ circuit goes hand in hand with any touted relocation to the US.
Mr Orbán would not be the first politician, and definitely not the first conservative, to cash in on the post-government riches available to former leaders.
The Hungarian is already a seasoned veteran of America’s CPAC, having spoken at the conservative conference a number of times since Mr Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party.
Budapest has hosted its own version of the event, the first of its kind in Europe, every year since 2022.
There have also been Orbán appearances at other offshoots, such as the National Conservatism Conference (NatCon), for which he was a keynote speaker at the 2024 gathering in Brussels.
Mr Orbán’s first public appearance following his election defeat could be at the NatCon scheduled to be held in Jerusalem later this year.
From Russia with love
Mr Orbán has long been described as the Kremlin’s closest ally in Europe, and that relationship brought many benefits to both sides.
Budapest benefited from cheap deliveries of Russian oil and gas, and refused to join the rest of the continent in weaning itself off the supply after the invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Orbán reportedly described himself as a “mouse” aiding a “lion” on one phone call with Putin.
While many of his European contemporaries have gone to great lengths to forge friendships with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, the Hungarian painted him as an enemy.
Peter Szijjarto, his foreign minister, was the subject of two press stories in the final days of the campaign, both of which detailed his offers, in private phone calls, to help Sergei Lavrov, his Russian counterpart.
In the unlikely event that Hungary’s new government goes after both Mr Orbán and Mr Szijjarto for alleged corruption or colluding with a foreign government, they could seek refuge in Moscow.
Over the years, the Russian capital has become an unlikely home for deposed dictators, such as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and whistle-blowers against Western governments, such as Edward Snowden.
Putin would be likely to welcome the former Hungarian leader with open arms.
[Source: Daily Telegraph]
