The six ways Starmer could go

Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership is in fresh peril after the latest revelations in the Lord Mandelson scandal.

The Prime Minister has faced calls from the leaders of all major opposition parties to resign after it emerged that the peer had been appointed as ambassador to the US despite failing security vetting.

Sir Keir has insisted that he is not going anywhere, but a wide range of mechanisms are available to MPs wanting to oust him from Downing Street.

Here, The Telegraph sets out six ways he could leave No 10.

1. Privileges committee

The Commons privileges committee has been urged to investigate whether Sir Keir committed contempt of Parliament – a resignation matter – over his remarks in the Commons.

Last September, the Prime Minister told MPs that “full due process” had been followed during the appointment of Lord Mandelson. He now claims he did not know the peer had failed vetting.

However, the Liberal Democrats have called for the powerful committee – which investigated Boris Johnson over the partygate scandal – to conduct an inquiry into Sir Keir.

The committee was ultimately responsible for Mr Johnson standing down as an MP in June 2023 after its partygate report found that he had misled Parliament.

Had he not resigned, he would have been suspended for 90 days – more than long enough to trigger the process for a by-election and force an MP’s resignation from the Commons.

• Likelihood rating - 1/5

2. Confidence vote

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have said they will look at all options in Parliament to remove Sir Keir if he does not resign, including a confidence vote. All MPs would be able to vote.

The motion would probably be tabled by the leader of an opposition party, and would typically be worded: “That this House has no confidence in His Majesty’s Government.”

The Government would probably win a confidence vote, because Labour continues to command a large majority in the Commons. Even after Mr Johnson resigned as prime minister, his government won a confidence vote of the whole House in July 2022.

Labour’s simple majority is 156 seats – far greater than the majority Mr Johnson had at the time. This means 79 Labour MPs would need to vote against Sir Keir for the motion to be passed. They would face suspension from the party if they chose to do so.

If Sir Keir’s administration were to lose a confidence vote, the Prime Minister would be expected to resign or call a general election.

• Likelihood rating - 1/5

3. Labour leadership challenge

Sir Keir is likely to face a challenge to his leadership after the May local elections at the latest. However, the Labour Party rulebook does not make a successful challenge easy.

Any potential leadership challenger must win the backing of 80 MPs who are prepared to put their careers on the line and be publicly named.

There is also the absence of a stand-out candidate seen as able to command that level of support.

Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, is on the Labour Right, which puts him at odds with a majority of backbenchers. Some also believe he would be damaged in any future contest by his own past friendship with Lord Mandelson.

Angela Rayner, Sir Keir’s former deputy, is the subject of an ongoing HMRC inquiry after her resignation last September when a Telegraph investigation exposed her failure to pay £40,000 in stamp duty. Ms Rayner said it was an “honest mistake”.

Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, is seen as broadly popular but is currently ineligible because he is not an MP. 

Other contenders are thought to lack the required name recognition with the public or momentum among their backbench colleagues.

• Likelihood rating - 4/5

4. Standards investigation

Sir Keir could be investigated by Parliament’s standards watchdog over his potential breach of the rules in the Lord Mandelson scandal.

It is up to Daniel Greenberg, the parliamentary standards commissioner, to assess all complaints made to him that relate to any possible infringement of the rules.

Mr Greenberg can refer a more serious case to the Commons standards committee, a panel that can recommend tougher sanctions.

The most extreme punishments that can be imposed by the committee include suspensions from the Commons, which would have the practical effect of forcing Sir Keir’s resignation.

• Likelihood rating - 2/5

5. Ethics investigation

Sir Keir could also face an investigation by Sir Laurie Magnus, his independent adviser on ministerial interests. 

Any MP can write to the ethics adviser, urging him to open an investigation where there is thought to have been a breach of the ministerial code.

The decision on whether to investigate would then be up to Sir Laurie. While his findings are advisory, his previous findings have forced the resignations of Ms Rayner and Tulip Siddiq, the former anti-corruption minister, from their positions.

The ministerial code requires ministers to be “as open as possible with Parliament and the public” and demands that any misleading statements be corrected as soon as possible.

Sir Keir has been accused of failing to do this on learning about Lord Mandelson’s vetting failure.

• Likelihood rating - 3/5

6. Starmer quits

After months of pressure over the scandal, Sir Keir could ultimately decide to bow out.

The Prime Minister is clearly intent on fighting for survival. On Monday, he will give a statement in the Commons that will place blame at the door of the Foreign Office.

But if the local election results are dire on May 7, he could feel that he is no longer the right person to lead the Labour Party and be in No 10.

On Monday, a Cabinet minister said he expected the Prime Minister would take the party into the next general election, but admitted there were “no certainties”.

• Likelihood rating - 2/5 

[Source: Daily Telegraph]