Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei have more in common than they realise
Both leaders cannot afford to make concessions through fear of looking weak. One communicates through carefully drafted written statements to avoid showing his face. The other fires off incendiary posts at all hours in an apparent stream of consciousness, never shying away from a camera or a phone call with a journalist.
But however different their methods, the message Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei are projecting is one and the same: we are winning.
Therein they face the same problem: neither can afford to make concessions through fear of looking weak, forcing them to present a stalemate as a victory.
On the one hand, Mr Khamenei is demanding permanent management rights over the Strait of Hormuz as proof that Iran has defeated America’s military power.
On the other, Mr Trump needs Iran to beg for sanctions relief as proof the blockade worked and he can force nuclear concessions without direct negotiations.
Both men are willing to strangle 21 million barrels of daily oil flow and risk a global recession because of the domestic political costs that come with compromise.
For Mr Khamenei, compromise means looking weak to hardliners; for Mr Trump, it means looking weak to his Maga base.
Analysts told The Telegraph both need a deal, but neither can publicly admit it.
On Sunday night, Mr Trump launched “Project Freedom” – involving 15,000 troops, several destroyers, more than 100 aircraft – not because the economic blockade of Iranian ports was succeeding, but because it was failing.
After weeks of strangling Iranian ports while Tehran strangled Hormuz in return, oil prices were soaring, the global economy was buckling and Iran showed no signs of begging for relief, leaving Mr Trump with a choice between admitting failure or doubling down with military force.
The war has cost the US an estimated $1bn (£800m) a day, according to congressional sources. A poll released on Friday showed 60 per cent of Americans now call the war a mistake.
Yet Mr Trump cannot withdraw without concessions that prove the blockade worked.
And when he told reporters last week that America might be “better off not making a deal at all”, the US president was preparing his base for renewed conflict – framed as the result of Iranian intransigence rather than strategic failure.
Mr Khamenei faces the same trap from the opposite direction.
Any deal with the US that appears to involve concessions would enrage the hardliners on whose support he depends for his political legitimacy.
“This is the extremist, fundamentalist, autonomous – fire at will – and apocalyptic-minded tendency within the establishment that has influence in the various state institutions, including the IRGC,” Saeed Barzin, a veteran Iranian analyst, warned, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mr Khamenei inherited supreme leadership more than two months ago under the worst possible circumstances, with his father assassinated, legitimacy questioned and being forced to govern during wartime without ever appearing in public.
But Iran cannot sustain the closure of Hormuz indefinitely. With the national economy in freefall, millions of Iranians have lost jobs since the war began.
The proposal Iran delivered to Pakistani mediators on Thursday talked about “ending the war and a lasting peace”.
It calls for converting the ceasefire into a complete end to the war within at least 30 days, with an international body guaranteeing no return to conflict.
On the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would gradually reopen the waterway and take responsibility for clearing mines, while not opposing US support for demining operations.
Iran proposes discussing a complete halt to uranium enrichment for a time period that could extend up to 15 years.
After the limitation period expires, Iran would reportedly return to 3.6 per cent enrichment based on a “zero stockpile” principle.
Mr Trump’s response that he was “not satisfied” and Iran had not “paid a big enough price” suggests he understood the performance.
The attack on United Arab Emirates (UAE) territory reveals another parallel that both Mr Trump and Mr Khamenei are losing control of their own escalation.
Iran striking Fujairah – a UAE oil port that bypasses Hormuz entirely – suggests either Tehran is expanding the conflict beyond the strait itself, or Revolutionary Guard commanders are making targeted decisions that complicate Mr Khamenei’s diplomatic options.
Similarly, Mr Trump’s threat about blowing ships “off the face of the earth” commits him to responses that may exceed what his military advisers recommend.
Analysts say that Mr Trump needs dramatic military action in Hormuz to counter domestic opposition to the war and Mr Khamenei needs Iran to look defiant, not weak.
But both have told their populations that backing down equals surrender. Mr Trump’s core supporters expect Iran to be crushed or contained. Iranian hardliners expect American humiliation.
[Source: Daily Telegraph]
