Why the data shows Guimarães deal could be another Arsenal set-piece masterstroke
Brazilian excels at winning free-kicks and conjuring results from them, hence why the champions were willing to spend £75m
Bruno Guimarães has broken a very niche record. His £75m move to Arsenalis the most expensive transfer for a midfielder aged at least 28.
This shouldn’t be taken too seriously given the previous record holder, Zinedine Zidane, moved 25 years ago from Juventus to Real Madrid, so would still have cost far more in 2026 money. But it shows how highly the Gunners rate the Brazilian to have spent so much on a player who will be in his 30s before the end of next year. It is a transfer for today, not tomorrow.
The question is why. One reason is that Guimarães rarely misses matches. Another is that he can play anywhere across midfield in the 4-3-3 formation Mikel Arteta often deploys. These attributes could be priceless with Declan Rice managing long-term nerve pain in his hamstring and Martin Ødegaard completing only 40% of possible Premier League minutes last season.
The former Newcastle player is adept at breaking up attacks. Opta’s data shows Arsenal misplaced 1,492 passes in the final third last season, the fourth most in the Premier League. That’s a lot of potential opportunities for opposition teams to hit them on the break.
Guimarães is unafraid to give away a free-kick if required. He was penalised for 45 fouls in the league last season, a mark he hit in all four of his full campaigns with Newcastle. Only Moisés Caicedo also reached that level in each of the previous four Premier League seasons.
Yet despite committing the fourth most fouls in the competition since making his debut for Newcastle in February 2022, nine players have received more yellow cards than Guimarães in that time. Not all indiscretions are equal but referees seem to view him favourably.
They’re even nicer on the other side of the foul equation. Guimarães excels in the art of winning free-kicks. He has suffered 410 fouls in the Premier League, more than 100 more than anyone else during his time in England.
Look around other top European leagues, at competitions in which referees are quicker to award a foul than they are in England. Aside from the Lazio winger Mattia Zaccagni (with 418), you won’t find anyone who has won more free-kicks than Guimarães. Vinicius Júnior is a shade above him on a pro-rata basis, with 2.95 fouls drawn per 90 minutes to 2.89, and Arsenal were trying to sign him too.
Guimarães ranked no lower than second in the Premier League for fouls suffered in each of the previous four seasons, twice leading the standings across England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. This will have been an enticing selling point for a team that spin so much gold from set plays. And here’s the ultimate win from Arsenal’s perspective: only two players have scored more set-piece goals than Guimarães in the Premier League since early 2022, and they already own one of them.
His total of 12 goals is the joint-most by a midfielder or forward. By moving to the Emirates he has linked up with one of the defenders above him, his fellow Brazilian Gabriel Magalhães.
The 28-year-old is not the only big loss to Newcastle this summer. Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon were vital players and also in Newcastle’s top four for free-kicks won last season. But their combined foul total was less than Guimarães’ efforts and neither scored from a set piece either.
For a team that plays the way in which Arsenal do, this particular set of skills may just be worth £75m, even for a relative veteran.
[Source: The Guardian]
