Syria distances itself from the US-Israeli war on Iran

Enab Baladi – Rakan al-Khadr

The US-Israeli war on Iran has not been confined to the territories and interests of the three countries involved. It has expanded to include other states across the region that have not been spared the repercussions of the confrontation. Iran has targeted more than one country in the Middle East, stretching from the Gulf to Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Iranian missiles and drones have struck all Gulf countries. While Tehran said it was targeting US interests and bases in those states, some of the missiles reached civilian targets and economic facilities, particularly energy centers in a region vital to the global economy.

Iran and its regional allies also targeted Turkey and Azerbaijan, leaving almost no country in the region unaffected by the confrontation that erupted on February 28.

Due to Syria’s geographic location, it has not been far from the repercussions of the military confrontation. Several security incidents linked to the war were recorded, including Iranian military objects falling inside Syrian territory after being intercepted by Israeli defenses.

Impact of the war on Syria

Waiel Olwan, a researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies, told Enab Baladi that Syria will not be immune to the effects of the war on Iran, much like the rest of the region, given its geopolitical position in the midst of these developments. He noted that Israeli airstrikes heading toward Iran and Iranian missiles targeting Israel pass through Syrian airspace.

Olwan added that Iran is attempting to invest in groups loyal to it in Iraq and Lebanon, all of which surround Syria. He also pointed to the ongoing Israeli threat in Lebanon, which is directly linked to security and stability in Syria.

For his part, Mutaz al-Sayyed, a researcher at the Syrian Center for Security and Defense Studies, expects the war’s impact on Iran in Syria to be mostly indirect. The main concern, he said, is that Iran could attempt to use affiliated groups in the region, whether from Lebanon or Iraq, to launch attacks against Israel from Syrian territory.

Al-Sayyed noted that such a scenario could disrupt the relative calm currently prevailing between Syria and Israel and could justify Israel to expand its military intervention inside Syrian territory. There is also an economic dimension, as a prolonged war could trigger an energy crisis in the region, affecting most countries, including Syria.

However, the impact may not be entirely negative. Al-Sayyed suggested that a potential weakening of the Iranian regime or its collapse could lead to the end of the activities of remnants of the Assad regime or at least reduce their ability to operate in the future.

Reasons behind Damascus’ silence

Since the start of the military confrontation between Israel and Iran on February 28, Syria has recorded debris falls and direct targeting at 18 locations, according to field monitoring by Enab Baladi correspondents and data from the Syrian Civil Defense.

In southern Syria, Enab Baladi documented the death of five people in Suwayda after an explosion in the city’s industrial zone. Accounts about the cause of the blast conflicted. Forces affiliated with the “National Guard” of Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri said the explosion was caused by an Iranian missile heading toward Israel that randomly struck a commercial shop in the industrial area due to its inaccuracy.

Damascus, however, provided a different account, attributing the explosion to the detonation of a weapons and missile depot belonging to the “National Guard.”

Enab Baladi also documented debris falling in al-Musayfrah, Nawa, Deir al-Adas, Inkhil, Sanam al-Hamam, and Shabraq in Daraa (southern Syria), as well as the crash of a drone in al-Ajami in Daraa.

Debris was also recorded in al-Salam town and the villages of Rafid and al-Hiran in Quneitra (southern Syria near the occupied Golan Heights).

In Damascus and its countryside, the al-Otaybah station went out of service following a direct strike. Shrapnel also fell near Bayt Jinn, Saydnaya, and Ain Tarma.

In northern, eastern, and coastal areas, a ballistic missile fell in the village of Qizlijah south of al-Qamishli in al-Hasakah governorate, while the Kharab al-Jir base in Rmeilan was targeted. A projectile also landed in the village of al-Futaykh in the countryside of Jableh in Latakia governorate.

Damascus has not issued any official statement or position regarding these military objects falling inside Syrian territory. This comes despite statements issued by the Syrian government condemning Iran’s targeting of countries in the region, such as Turkey, the Gulf states, and Azerbaijan, expressing support for those countries and denouncing Iranian operations.

Researcher Mutaz al-Sayyed believes the Syrian silence is an attempt to avoid escalation, as most of the military objects falling inside Syria are remnants of missiles or drones related to the ongoing regional confrontation.

He explained that Damascus understands that a sharp political or media response could open the door to unnecessary tensions with Israel without achieving tangible gains. Syria’s current position does not allow for more than limited diplomatic responses, as political escalation at this stage would bring no benefit. Therefore, Damascus prefers to deal with these incidents calmly and focus on containing their effects on the ground rather than turning them into a political crisis.

Meanwhile, researcher Waiel Olwan argued that the Syrian government’s stance cannot be described as silence. Instead, Syria is currently adopting a wait and see approach in an effort to avoid the repercussions directly affecting it.

Olwan added that the falling military debris inside Syrian territory has caused panic among residents and some material damage. However, the Syrian government has not taken a clear stance because Syria itself has not been directly targeted by these projectiles.

According to Olwan, the Syrian government is seeking to remain distant from regional score settling.

Precautionary military movement to avoid chaos

The Syrian army has reinforced its deployment along the borders with Lebanon and Iraq, in a move it said aims to monitor cross-border activity and combat smuggling amid regional escalation and Israeli airstrikes that have expanded to include Lebanon.

The escalation came after Lebanon’s Hezbollah resumed launching rockets at Israel on March 2. Israel responded by issuing evacuation orders covering most of southern Lebanon, which led to the displacement of tens of thousands of people.

At the same time, Israeli airstrikes continued to hit different areas in Lebanon, including the south, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley. The strikes resulted in casualties and pushed thousands more people to flee toward the Syrian border.

Regarding Damascus’ movements along the Syrian borders with Lebanon and Iraq, Waiel Olwan said the chaos in Lebanon and Iraq is directly linked to the war. Syria is also anticipating a potential displacement crisis from Lebanon. He expects that the Syrian government’s official position toward such a crisis will not affect Syrian-Lebanese relations.

However, according to Olwan, the issue represents a humanitarian responsibility that requires the Syrian government to approach it with security caution. He also suggested launching a proactive initiative to coordinate with regional and international actors and UN organizations to address a potential humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, as Syria cannot bear the burden alone, given its difficult economic and living conditions.

Olwan believes this humanitarian obligation, particularly a possible wave of displacement from Lebanon, requires supporting partners for Damascus in light of Syria’s current weaknesses, while maintaining the necessary security precautions when dealing with the Lebanese file.

Mutaz al-Sayyed also believes the intensified military deployment along the borders is a precautionary measure amid regional tensions, aimed at preventing armed groups from infiltrating Syrian territory to launch attacks against Israel or allowing Hezbollah cells or Iraqi militias linked to Iran to enter Syria.

Such movements, he said, could drag Syria into a conflict it does not want to join. Damascus is therefore attempting to tighten control over its borders and prevent any uncontrolled military activity.

Al-Sayyed added that this measure is normal for any country under similar circumstances, as governments usually increase border monitoring during regional crises to prevent tensions from spilling over into their territory.

He also expects the Syrian government to regulate entry through official border crossings and combat smuggling in the event of a displacement crisis from Lebanon. Displaced people may be directed to specific areas to avoid friction with local communities, given the social sensitivities among some Syrians who believe Lebanon previously mistreated Syrian refugees, which could create internal tensions if the situation is not managed carefully.

Syria, according to al-Sayyed, is already under significant economic pressure and may not be able to withstand a large-scale displacement wave.

[Source: Enab Baladi English]