New supreme leader shows folly of Trump’s war
Iran’s regime may be fragile but it has just sent a loud message of defiance
Few Iranians have more intense personal reasons to loathe America and resist any surrender or compromise than Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been named the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader.
The opening air strikes of this war on Feb 28 killed not only Mr Khamenei’s father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but also his mother, Mansoureh, his wife, Zahra, and probably one of his children.
Having assumed the leadership in personally tragic circumstances, it seems unlikely that Mr Khamenei will be prepared to do America’s bidding or retreat in any way. Donald Trump described Mr Khamenei last week as “unacceptable to me”, adding: “We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran.”
Instead, Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the group of senior clerics charged with selecting supreme leaders, has sent a message of defiance by choosing the supposedly “unacceptable” candidate.
The crucial test will be whether ordinary Iranians now come on to the streets to demonstrate against the elevation of the younger Mr Khamenei.
If the transfer of power takes place without a popular uprising, then the outcome of Mr Trump’s war may be that Iran’s regime survives under a still more extreme and obdurate leadership that could, for example, decide that only a nuclear weapon would assure its grip on power.
But first, Mr Khamenei, 56, will have to consolidate his position. He will be encumbered by the fact that he is not an ayatollah, which means that he lacks religious authority, and his elevation will appear to be a dynastic succession in a country that calls itself a republic.
During his father’s lifetime, Mr Khamenei was often mentioned as the next supreme leader, but when many thousands of Iranians were marching in the streets against the regime, senior figures feared that a hereditary transfer of power would be too provocative and inflammatory.
Now everything is different. The Islamic Republic is fighting for its life against a combined onslaught from America and Israel, and Mr Khamenei’s promotion suggests that the regime judges that this is no time for flexibility and compromise, either with domestic opponents or foreign enemies.
Just naming Mr Khamenei as the new supreme leader raises the possibility that he, too, could be assassinated. But this decision also ends a nine-day power vacuum created by his father’s killing. The new leader will have no thought except to defy Mr Trump.
[Source: Daily Telegraph]
