Iran is on its knees, and can’t demand anything significant from Trump
The only realistic deal on offer for the Islamic Republic, after its devastating losses, is to simply end hostilities
No matter how hard the Iranians try to pretend they have the upper hand in negotiations to end hostilities with the US, the inescapable reality is that the ayatollahs desperately need to seal a deal – and quickly – if the Islamic Republic is to stand any chance of surviving the conflict.
While Iranian negotiators are doing their level best to string out negotiations with the Trump administration in the hope of securing a better deal, their efforts are nothing more than an attempt to conceal the regime’s catastrophic weakness.
Iran’s basket-case economy has collapsed almost entirely as a result of the 40-day war with the US and Israel, with Iranians relying almost exclusively on the black economy to survive.
Destruction of key infrastructure, such as airports and oil facilities, has undoubtedly added to the deepening crisis. But measures taken by the regime itself, such as imposing a nationwide internet black-out to disrupt the activities of anti-government protesters, have not helped matters either. Around 6 per cent of Iran’s GDP relies on the digital economy, and the black-out serves to highlight the regime’s utter indifference to the welfare of its citizens.
Nor can Iran withstand the devastating economic impact of America’s naval blockade for much longer. Around 90 per cent of Iran’s annual $109.7bn trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the blockade is estimated to be costing Iran around $435m in economic activity daily, and could result in the country being forced to close its oil fields.
With predictions that inflation could soon hit 180 per cent, and unemployment rise by another two million as factories are forced to close, it is hard to imagine a bleaker economic outlook, one that will be in the forefront of the minds of Iranian negotiators as they weigh up President Trump’s latest 14-point peace offer.
The position has become so critical that Iran’s central bank recently warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the country’s war-damaged economy could take more than a decade.
Meanwhile, the regime has resorted to its tried and tested methods of state-sponsored repression to crush any sign of dissent, with reports of torture, forced confessions and executions now an everyday occurrence.
And with the ranks of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said to be depleted by the merciless pounding they have endured at the hands of the Americans and Israelis, the regime has simply imported Islamist extremists from abroad to help it keep a lid on any signs of potential unrest.
Viewed from every available matrix, it is self-evident that the Iranian regime is clearly on its knees, and in no position to demand any significant concessions from the Trump administration in the ongoing negotiations to end the conflict, which in any other context might be viewed as Iran’s terms of surrender.
Yet, judging from recent comments made by prominent Western commentators, there is a widespread view that Iran not only has the upper hand in the talks, but is well within its rights to impose its own restrictions on commercial shipping using the Strait of Hormuz, even though the waterway is recognised as an international passage under the laws of the sea.
Many of those seeking to defend Iran’s position are clearly suffering from a classic case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, whereby it is assumed that, because of their visceral dislike of the American president, any initiative undertaken by his administration is doomed to failure.
Yet, by giving the impression that Iran has a strong hand to play in the next round of talks, which are scheduled to resume in Pakistan later this week, Tehran’s apologists are playing a dangerous game, as they risk persuading Iran’s negotiators that they really do have the upper hand, when in fact the opposite is the case.
Trump may be under pressure, both domestically and internationally, to resolve a conflict that is causing widespread disruption to the global economy. But it is inconceivable that he would agree to a deal with Tehran that resulted in Iran assuming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Nor will the president tolerate any nuclear agreement that provides Tehran with even the slightest window to resume work on its clandestine nuclear weapons programme.
The only realistic deal on offer for Iran is one that simply ends hostilities and allows the country to rebuild after the devastating losses it has suffered in recent months.
[Source: Con Coughlin opinion - Daily Telegraph]
